{"id":473,"date":"2018-10-06T13:51:32","date_gmt":"2018-10-06T13:51:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/knowledgefarm.ch\/strategidea\/?page_id=473"},"modified":"2024-11-19T15:37:41","modified_gmt":"2024-11-19T15:37:41","slug":"les-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/les-perspectives-et-la-prospective\/les-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"Les sc\u00e9narios"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-margin-bottom:0px;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><h3><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-916\" src=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-300x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"50\" height=\"50\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-66x66.png 66w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-200x200.png 200w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-400x399.png 400w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-600x599.png 600w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario.png 613w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 50px) 100vw, 50px\" \/> Les sc\u00e9narios<\/h3>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Un sc\u00e9nario est un ensemble form\u00e9 par la description d\u2019une situation future et du cheminement des \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui permettent de passer de la situation d\u2019origine \u00e0 la situation future. Il faut ajouter que cet ensemble d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements doit pr\u00e9senter une certaine coh\u00e9rence (Godet, Cahiers du Lipsor n\u00b05 \u2013 La bo\u00eete \u00e0 outils de prospective strat\u00e9gique, 2004).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>L\u2019\u00e9laboration de sc\u00e9narios de prospective (pour la r\u00e9flexion) est \u00e0 la fois un exercice de <strong>synth\u00e8se<\/strong> et <strong>d\u2019imagination<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Le sc\u00e9nario part de la situation actuelle et montre, pas \u00e0 pas, comment l\u2019\u00e9tat de chose futur pourrait d\u00e9couler du pr\u00e9sent d\u2019une mani\u00e8re plausible. C\u2019est un instrument d\u2019anticipation situ\u00e9 entre la r\u00e9flexion strat\u00e9gique et la planification. Il met en musique (coh\u00e9rence) les \u00e9l\u00e9ments de la r\u00e9flexion strat\u00e9gique, et pr\u00e9pare le choix des options strat\u00e9giques et les d\u00e9cisions qui en d\u00e9coulent.<\/p>\n<p>Le chef-fe d\u2019entreprise doit avoir identifi\u00e9 dans son entreprise les \u00e9l\u00e9ments et les \u00e9quilibres dont la remise en question mettrait en danger l\u2019ensemble, afin de se concentrer sur les \u00e9volutions susceptibles d\u2019affecter ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments importants.<\/p>\n<p>Le r\u00f4le d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario est de <strong>simuler (anticiper)<\/strong> les <strong>r\u00e9actions possibles<\/strong> face \u00e0 des <strong>\u00e9v\u00e9nements<\/strong> probables (mais pas certains, et par forc\u00e9ment souhait\u00e9s).<\/p>\n<p>Un \u00e9v\u00e9nement probable dans le futur est caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 par :<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Une description de l\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nement: de quoi s\u2019agit-il, quelle est son origine (interne vs externe)\u00a0? Est-ce un facteur de risque ou de chance (menace, opportunit\u00e9) ?<\/li>\n<li>Une \u00e9ch\u00e9ance.<\/li>\n<li>Une probabilit\u00e9.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>La construction de sc\u00e9narios a tendance \u00e0 placer le chef-fe d\u2019entreprise dans une attitude r\u00e9active et non proactive. Il laisse sugg\u00e9rer que c\u2019est l\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nement qui d\u00e9clenche la d\u00e9cision. C\u2019est une vue restrictive du sc\u00e9nario. C\u2019est pourquoi, il ne faut pas oublier la part prospective du sc\u00e9nario. Le chef d\u2019entreprise est aussi proactif. C\u2019est-\u00e0-dire que ses d\u00e9cisions peuvent modeler le futur.<\/p>\n<h5>Citations<\/h5>\n<p><em>\u00ab\u00a0Le manager sait que le sc\u00e9nario qu\u2019il a en t\u00eate ne se r\u00e9alisera pas. Mais il sait \u00e9galement que sans l\u2019id\u00e9e du futur, il ne pourra pas s\u2019adapter aux \u00e9v\u00e8nements \u00e9mergents.\u00a0\u00bb (Perrot, 2012)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00ab\u00a0Bien que l\u2019objectif d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario ne soit pas de pr\u00e9voir l\u2019avenir, il sert \u00e0 d\u00e9montrer la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un certain avenir, en esquissant un encha\u00eenement logique des \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui sont susceptibles d\u2019y conduire.\u00a0\u00bb (Hetman, 1969)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-section-separator section-separator clouds fusion-section-separator-1\" style=\"--awb-spacer-height:99px;--awb-svg-margin-left:0;--awb-svg-margin-right:0;--awb-divider-height:99px;--awb-spacer-padding-top:inherit;--awb-sep-padding:0;--awb-svg-padding:0;\"><div class=\"fusion-section-separator-svg\"><svg class=\"fusion-clouds-candy\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 100\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" fill=\"rgba(246,246,246,1)\"><path d=\"M-5 100 Q 0 20 5 100 Z\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M0 100 Q 5 0 10 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M5 100 Q 10 30 15 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M10 100 Q 15 10 20 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M15 100 Q 20 30 25 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M20 100 Q 25 -10 30 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M25 100 Q 30 10 35 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M30 100 Q 35 30 40 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M35 100 Q 40 10 45 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M40 100 Q 45 50 50 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M45 100 Q 50 20 55 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M50 100 Q 55 40 60 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M55 100 Q 60 60 65 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M60 100 Q 65 50 70 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M65 100 Q 70 20 75 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M70 100 Q 75 45 80 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M75 100 Q 80 30 85 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M80 100 Q 85 20 90 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M85 100 Q 90 50 95 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M90 100 Q 95 25 100 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M95 100 Q 100 15 105 100 Z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"fusion-section-separator-spacer\"><div class=\"fusion-section-separator-spacer-height\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-2 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-menu-anchor\" id=\"Boite\"><\/div><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><h3><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-916\" src=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-300x300.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"50\" height=\"50\" srcset=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-66x66.png 66w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-200x200.png 200w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-400x399.png 400w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario-600x599.png 600w, https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2018\/11\/Logo-rouge-sc\u00e9nario.png 613w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 50px) 100vw, 50px\" \/> Boite \u00e0 outils<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h3>\n<div class=\"textbox exercises\">\n<h4>Construire des sc\u00e9narios<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea?leaky-paywall-media-download=1204\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fiche m\u00e9thode : construire des sc\u00e9narios<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea?leaky-paywall-media-download=1206\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Formulaire : construire des sc\u00e9narios<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"parent":441,"menu_order":2,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"100-width.php","meta":{"_sb_is_suggestion_mode":false,"_sb_show_suggestion_boards":false,"_sb_show_comment_boards":false,"_sb_suggestion_history":"","_sb_update_block_changes":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-473","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=473"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/473\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6585,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/473\/revisions\/6585"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}