{"id":441,"date":"2018-10-06T13:02:34","date_gmt":"2018-10-06T13:02:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/knowledgefarm.ch\/strategidea\/?page_id=441"},"modified":"2024-11-22T08:40:28","modified_gmt":"2024-11-22T08:40:28","slug":"les-perspectives-et-la-prospective","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/les-perspectives-et-la-prospective\/","title":{"rendered":"Les perspectives et la prospective"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_3 1_3 fusion-one-third fusion-column-first\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;width:33.333333333333%;width:calc(33.333333333333% - ( ( 4% + 4% ) * 0.33333333333333 ) );margin-right: 4%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-aligncenter\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-default fusion-button-default button-1 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" style=\"--button-border-radius-top-left:0;--button-border-radius-top-right:0;--button-border-radius-bottom-right:0;--button-border-radius-bottom-left:0;\" target=\"_self\" href=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/les-perspectives-et-la-prospective\/les-marges-de-manoeuvre\/\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default fusion-button-text-right\">Les marges de manoeuvre<\/span><span class=\"fusion-button-icon-divider button-icon-divider-right\"><i class=\"fa-file-import fas awb-button__icon awb-button__icon--default\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i><\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion_builder_column_1_3 1_3 fusion-one-third\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;width:33.333333333333%;width:calc(33.333333333333% - ( ( 4% + 4% ) * 0.33333333333333 ) );margin-right: 4%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-aligncenter\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-default fusion-button-default button-2 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" style=\"--button-border-radius-top-left:0;--button-border-radius-top-right:0;--button-border-radius-bottom-right:0;--button-border-radius-bottom-left:0;\" target=\"_self\" href=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/les-perspectives-et-la-prospective\/les-scenarios\/\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default fusion-button-text-right\">Les sc\u00e9narios<\/span><span class=\"fusion-button-icon-divider button-icon-divider-right\"><i class=\"fa-file-import fas awb-button__icon awb-button__icon--default\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i><\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-2 fusion_builder_column_1_3 1_3 fusion-one-third fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;width:33.333333333333%;width:calc(33.333333333333% - ( ( 4% + 4% ) * 0.33333333333333 ) );\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-aligncenter\"><a class=\"fusion-button button-flat fusion-button-default-size button-default fusion-button-default button-3 fusion-button-default-span fusion-button-default-type\" style=\"--button-border-radius-top-left:0;--button-border-radius-top-right:0;--button-border-radius-bottom-right:0;--button-border-radius-bottom-left:0;\" target=\"_self\" href=\"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/les-perspectives-et-la-prospective\/lappreciation-des-risques-strategiques\/\"><span class=\"fusion-button-text awb-button__text awb-button__text--default fusion-button-text-right\">Les risques strat\u00e9giques<\/span><span class=\"fusion-button-icon-divider button-icon-divider-right\"><i class=\"fa-file-import fas awb-button__icon awb-button__icon--default\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i><\/span><\/a><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-3 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-one-full fusion-column-first fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-section-separator section-separator clouds fusion-section-separator-1\" style=\"--awb-spacer-height:99px;--awb-svg-margin-left:0;--awb-svg-margin-right:0;--awb-divider-height:99px;--awb-spacer-padding-top:inherit;--awb-sep-padding:0;--awb-svg-padding:0;\"><div class=\"fusion-section-separator-svg\"><svg class=\"fusion-clouds-candy\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" version=\"1.1\" width=\"100%\" height=\"100\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 100\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" fill=\"rgba(246,246,246,1)\"><path d=\"M-5 100 Q 0 20 5 100 Z\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M0 100 Q 5 0 10 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M5 100 Q 10 30 15 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M10 100 Q 15 10 20 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M15 100 Q 20 30 25 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M20 100 Q 25 -10 30 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M25 100 Q 30 10 35 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M30 100 Q 35 30 40 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M35 100 Q 40 10 45 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M40 100 Q 45 50 50 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M45 100 Q 50 20 55 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M50 100 Q 55 40 60 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M55 100 Q 60 60 65 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M60 100 Q 65 50 70 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M65 100 Q 70 20 75 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M70 100 Q 75 45 80 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M75 100 Q 80 30 85 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M80 100 Q 85 20 90 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M85 100 Q 90 50 95 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M90 100 Q 95 25 100 100\"><\/path>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<path d=\"M95 100 Q 100 15 105 100 Z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"fusion-section-separator-spacer\"><div class=\"fusion-section-separator-spacer-height\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-2 nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-4 fusion_builder_column_1_2 1_2 fusion-one-half fusion-column-first\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;width:50%;width:calc(50% - ( ( 4% ) * 0.5 ) );margin-right: 4%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\"><p>Les perspectives de la r\u00e9flexion strat\u00e9gique sont tourn\u00e9es vers <strong>l\u2019anticipation<\/strong> <strong>de<\/strong> <strong>l\u2019avenir<\/strong>. C\u2019est pr\u00e9voir ce qui peut \u00eatre pr\u00e9vu; c\u2019est se pr\u00e9parer \u00e0 ce qui ne peut pas \u00eatre pr\u00e9vu. Effectivement, la pr\u00e9vision n\u2019est pas suffisante, car elle d\u00e9crit l\u2019avenir comme quelque chose \u00e0 deviner en fonction des r\u00e8gles du pass\u00e9\u2026. les perspectives de la r\u00e9flexion strat\u00e9gique sont <strong>prospectives<\/strong>, leur point de vue est que <strong>l\u2019avenir est quelque chose \u00e0 construire<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>La prospective strat\u00e9gique consiste \u00e0 mettre l\u2019anticipation de l\u2019avenir au service de l\u2019action (Godet, 2004)<\/strong>. La prospective est centr\u00e9e sur la question \u00ab\u00a0Que peut-il advenir\u00a0?\u00a0\u00bb. Plus qu\u2019une pr\u00e9vision de l\u2019avenir, elle est volontariste car le chef d\u2019entreprise agit pour provoquer les changements souhait\u00e9s (il est possible d\u2019influencer le futur).<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-5 fusion_builder_column_1_2 1_2 fusion-one-half fusion-column-last\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;width:50%;width:calc(50% - ( ( 4% ) * 0.5 ) );\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-column-wrapper-legacy\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><p>La prospective se base en partie sur l\u2019analyse r\u00e9trospective, la m\u00e9moire et l\u2019histoire. Si expliquer le pass\u00e9 est utile pour pr\u00e9voir l\u2019avenir, il n\u2019est pas suffisant pour l\u2019anticiper. C\u2019est pourquoi une attitude prospective doit \u00e9galement laisser une place \u00e0 l\u2019intuition et \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ativit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u00ab\u00a0La prospective est une mani\u00e8re de percer le brouillard qui entoure l\u2019avenir en imaginant les \u00e9v\u00e8nements techniques, \u00e9conomiques ou politiques\u2026 Ce travail n\u00e9cessaire au management n\u2019a rien de scientifique. Il diff\u00e8re cependant de la science-fiction, car il se soumet aux contraintes\u2026\u00a0\u00bb (Perrot, 2012)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div><div class=\"fusion-clearfix\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":9,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_sb_is_suggestion_mode":false,"_sb_show_suggestion_boards":false,"_sb_show_comment_boards":false,"_sb_suggestion_history":"","_sb_update_block_changes":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-441","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=441"}],"version-history":[{"count":32,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6686,"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/441\/revisions\/6686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/agripedia.ch\/strategidea\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}